LOOKING FOR MORE DATA? The Office of Economic Vitality is the source for Tallahassee-Leon County economic information and data. We track 80 key economic indicators, construction and development trends—both commercial and residential—as well as maintain a statistical digest, some of which are featured below. Whether your business needs assistance, you are looking to the perfect site for your business or need help from our expert analysts, we are here to help. Please visit any of the following categories to quickly access the information you need:
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* LEADING INDICATOR: may signal future changes; LAGGING INDICATOR: may confirm pattern already in progress; COINCIDENT INDICATOR: occurs in real time and clarifies condition of economy.
The terms leading, lagging, and coincident deal with the time horizon and not whether the economy is doing “better or worse” relative to somewhere else. Leading indicators are considered to point toward future events, are upstream in the process, and can give a heads-up for anticipated trends. Lagging indicators are seen as confirming a pattern in progress, and can only be known after the event because they are the outcomes of the leading factors that occur upstream. Coincident indicators occur in real-time and clarify the state of the economy. They tend to move in step with general economic trends and give a snapshot context of what is happening and how markets and economies are responding to the factors that affect their direction.
Where Are We?
Employment: The 3-month average employment was the lowest since Q1 1998. The year-over-year employment loss in Q2 2020 was nearly equivalent to the year-over-year gains made from the previous nine quarters combined. However, metro area employment grew 5.2% from April to June, the best two-month employment rally in the past 30 years, higher than the 4.1% growth during August-October 2012.
Unemployment Claims: There were 4,153 claims made in June in the Tallahassee MSA, down from 11,192 in May and 5,025 in April. The increase in May followed by a reduction in June matched the statewide pattern. There were 13 times as many claims made in the Tallahassee metro area in Q2 2020 than in Q2 2019, while statewide there were 25 times as many claims made in Q2 2020 compared to Q2 2019.
Passengers: Airline passenger volume nationwide decreased 80% in Q2 2020 compared to Q2 2019, according to data from TSA. The year-over-year rate of decline for local passenger traffic was down 87%, slightly more than the national rate.
Mortgage Foreclosures: Foreclosure proceedings stopped statewide on April 2, 2020 with Executive Order 20-94, requiring a 45-day suspension of “any statute providing for a mortgage foreclosure cause of action under Florida law.” Subsequent executive orders extended the suspension until September 1. The halt to foreclosure proceedings statewide has distorted the significance of the data as a meaningful lagging economic indicator at this time.
Recent instability in economic conditions has widened month-to-month fluctuation in some of the leading indicators (e.g., Employment, Unemployment Claims). For example, employment had a sharp decline of almost 16% in a single month in April, followed by earnest growth of 2.2% in May and 3% in June. Unemployment claims increased significantly from 5,025 in April to 11,192 in May, then fell to 4,153 in June.
The severity and duration of the COVID-19 quarantine has also adversely affected some of the lagging indicators (e.g., Unemployment Rate, Office Vacancy Rate).
The significance of some indicators has been distorted due to external effects. Foreclosure proceedings stopped statewide by executive order in April. Air travel nationwide in recent months has declined over 80% compared to 2019. Actions beyond local control can warp an indicator’s effectiveness in measuring local development.
Statewide employment and unemployment trends have shown greater month-to-month fluctuation than Tallahassee, regarding both loss and recovery.
Applications for Leon CARES Assistance Open On Monday, August 17 at 8 a.m.
If you have been impacted by COVID-19, you may be eligible to receive direct assistance through Leon County’s Leon CARES program starting Monday, August 17. Leon CARES provides federal funds to meet critical community needs related to COVID-19.
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